The Trouble with TV Audiences
If you’re thinking strategy for your supercool, breaking-in TV project, be sure to read this view of the shifting programming, cable expectations, and seasons. Because like a second dates, audiences will do some things, but they won’t, you know, do that other thing. So plan ahead. (Bill Carter explains it all much better, but if you’re not a New York Times reader, allow me.)
History of past programming habits still determines audience behavior. New shows and programming change-ups will not rewire our brain circuitry quickly. Summer has been dumping ground for no-confidence-vote network shows and reruns. So it’s hard to get viewers to pay attention to new shows. Swingtown is the example from CBS, which gets six million viewers (read “huge on cable, weak on network”). Viewers don’t commit because shows like this, whether good or not, have been shot in the back of the neck before the Labor Day barbeque. (Having seen it, some fine actors are doing great work, and while the story swings for the Mad Men and Soprano’s home run fence, but it’s pulling short into left field.)
However, reality programming successfully proliferates on networks in part because it is low-attention and low-commitment, which is what we’re accustomed to in Summer. When it comes to expectations, shows often light countdown fuse: at the end of eight weeks, we will have a new interior design show star. Add to the low-expectations inertia that, to viewers, network efforts to vary programming raises the question, are you really serious this time or just yanking our chains?
Given the long odds, I say, aim at cable with a drama pilot. And don’t forget the example the fitful success of It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, the cable comedy from FX. But remember, viewers will follow a drama and increasingly they’ll follow the people who make them. That’s you.
In movie news, there are too many independent films
In a speech at the Los Angeles Film Festival, longtime indie producer Mark Gill (The Film Department) gave a speech that seems to have given voice to the suspicions and private opinions of a lot of movie people: “Most of the [5,000 Sundance Film Festival entries, up by a factor of 10 from 15 years earlier] films are flat out awful.” David Carr sympathetically reports the thrust of Gill’s argument:
- Great small movies aren’t finding their audience in the competition (according to Gill, of 5,000 indies, 603 got distribution, which is about three times as many as the market could digest);
- A lot of dumb money went into low budget movies of untested filmmakers
- The dumb money in movies is exiting steadily and few expect it to come back
- All of which is proving that digital technology gives everyone access to tools, but that the craft is hard won and a good story is slippery.
“The overproduction is a breach of faith with the audience and they have become skeptical.” I’m borrowing Carr’s quote from Mark Harris. Breach of faith? The idea is droll. I think he’s got it backward: “We think there are too many films that are neither satisfying nor stimulating.” Carr names Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead as one of the movies that didn’t find it’s audience. Having recently seen that spare, strange, brutal movie, I agree with Harris that if there were fewer movies, this one might have stood out as good enough. But compared with movies that share some of it’s tragic relentlessness - No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood (also thematically vague and emotionally inconclusive) - it’s a chamber piece for actors. But I’m picking on products, when I really love movies. I’ll never forget the stricken looks on Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s face. I should be attacking the dumb money.
Blame it on Monte Carlo…
That is, the Monte Carlo method. I listened to a bank investment officer explain to a Hollywood Reporter staffer not that long ago that given a portfolio of film projects at different investment levels, the risk drops significantly because the probability of overall portfolio profitability depends on some projects becoming disproportionate producers. This Monte Carlo model of risk management is how they sold film investment funds to non-movie makers. And the inevitable has come to pass: to produce a movie that people see - the profitable ones - you must also produce a slate of projects that you expect to underperform - the ones people don’t see. In another market, say, toothpaste, one disappointing tube doesn’t deter you from brushing your teeth. But after enduring enough disappointing movies, viewers rightly wonder if it’s worth the trouble.
To call overproduction a breach of faith implies a contract, an understanding between movie makers and audiences. I’d like to think so, but…. In fact, it’s more investment bubble thinking at work, in which financial opportunity is exploited without respect to the implications and underlying principles. Movies projects are not mutual funds, real estate, dot com sites, or tulips. It turns out that a lot of money trying to find short-term gain in the obvious market dynamics can also eviscerates those markets. Maybe I’m feeling my age, or maybe you’ve got to get in and stay in if you’re going to know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.
And then there’s the view from inside, which is not about investment groups and portfolio analysis, but about making movies, from John August.